Key Climate Issues in G20 Summit, How India can emerge as World Leader

Scheduled for September 9-10 in Delhi, the G20 Leaders' Summit is set to address a broad array of topics, with climate change taking center stage, according to Indian officials. However, a series of geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating US-China competition, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping's decision to skip the meeting, pose challenges to reaching consensus on critical issues such as energy transition, green financing, and sustainable development goals.

This gathering carries significant importance, particularly in light of the growing impacts of climate change in what is projected to be a record-breaking year in terms of heat. The agenda for COP28 centers on urging major economies to commit to phasing out fossil fuels, significantly increasing investments in renewables, and elevating levels of climate finance.

India, during its G20 Presidency, has worked diligently to enhance its global standing. Nevertheless, the absence of China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin casts a shadow over the summit's potential success, despite Indian PM Modi's efforts.

The meetings of energy and climate ministers in July resulted in summary documents rather than a formal communique, underscoring the difficulty in achieving consensus. Despite challenging negotiations and a lack of clarity on key issues such as fossil fuel phase-out, climate finance, methods for implementing the energy transition, and reforms of multilateral banks (MDBs), there remains some optimism that the G20 Heads of State and Government Summit can secure the minimum consensus required to project unity among its members.

Key Climate Issues for the G20:

1. India's Leadership in Achieving Net Zero Emissions

The G20 presidency provides Prime Minister Narendra Modi with an opportunity to position India as a leader advocating for the interests of the Global South and also, the best opportunity to project India as a World Leader in combating Climate issues. India made a surprising announcement in 2021 by unveiling a plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070. The country has prioritized debt restructuring for vulnerable economies and may consolidate its leadership position if discussions on phasing out fossil fuels yield positive results.

India is expected to advocate for a global green development agreement encompassing climate finance, as well as initiatives like "Lifestyle for the Environment" (LiFE), the circular economy, accelerated progress on sustainable development goals, energy transitions, and energy security, as suggested by a report from the think-tank Strategic Perspectives.

2. Fossil Fuel Phase-Out, Subsidies, and Abatement

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia has resisted the idea of a fossil fuel phase-out. Additionally, member nations continue to disagree on the definition of abatement. The European Union is likely to support a fossil fuel phase-out deal at COP28, while China seeks to eliminate references to the 2009 G20 commitment to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. A recent report revealed that the G20 provided $1.4 trillion in public funds to support fossil fuels. India has notably reduced its fossil fuel subsidies by 76% from 2014 to 2022 while increasing support for clean energy significantly.

3. Coal

Coal has received limited attention during negotiations, despite the fact that the G20 countries collectively account for 93% of the world's operational coal capacity and 88% of pre-construction coal capacity. Without an agreement on coal phase-down and a halt to the development of new coal plants, G20 members cannot effectively support global climate migration efforts. India aims to secure a commitment to phase down fossil fuels, but the absence of such a commitment in the final text could jeopardize the progress made at the Bali summit last year. Reversing per capita coal power emissions growth in the G20 will require countries to commit to a coal phase-down.

4. Renewables

Germany is leading efforts to secure a COP28 agreement targeting a threefold increase in renewables. Developing countries like Indonesia and South Africa have raised objections, insisting on a clear finance package to support this goal. Analysis indicates that in G20 countries, wind and solar energy combined accounted for 13% of electricity generation in 2022, up from 5% in 2015.

5. Finance

Finance remains a pivotal element of the Leader's Summit. The G20 has an opportunity to mobilize the trillions of dollars required to support developing countries in their transition to cleaner energy. Annual investments in climate action must increase by more than $2.4 trillion per year (equivalent to 2% of global GDP) by 2030.

G20 Finance Deputies convened on September 5 to discuss debt distress among vulnerable countries, a topic expected to feature prominently at COP28. China, as the largest bilateral creditor to low- and middle-income nations, has not reached a consensus on debt resolution for vulnerable countries, with opposition to debt write-offs and a call for broader reforms of multilateral development banks.

The White House has hinted at a World Bank offer from President Biden, but unlocking these funds would require congressional approval, a potential challenge given the upcoming US Presidential elections next year. Pressure mounts on the EU to make substantial finance offers, despite recent leadership changes and Timmermans's departure. Additionally, calls are growing for oil-rich Saudi Arabia to provide developing nations with more financing for renewables and adaptation, rather than focusing on research and development in carbon capture and storage (CCS).

What Experts say

Sanjay Vashist, Director, Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA) said that India has already demonstrated leadership with bold and ambitious climate actions and will achieve two out of three quantifiable targets set forth in the NDC by 2030 - reducing emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% from 2005 levels and 40% non-fossil fuel installed electricity capacity in 2030.

"India now has a unique opportunity to influence other G20 nations to advance a sustainable, just, affordable, inclusive and clean energy transition. The Indian presidency must aim to get the world back on track to limit global warming below 1.5°C as promised by countries under the Paris Agreement", he added.

Dhruba Purkayastha, India Director, Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) said, "The G20 can bring alignment around a few items. Such as the reforms needed in multilateral banks. The MDBs need a new financial architecture. There needs to be a mechanism that will also bring in the IMF by recycling Special Drawing Rights, which has already been a model in the resilience and sustainability trust. The outcome documents from the Governors' meeting show that they all align in the need for MDB reforms. But what is lacking is institutionalisation of the concepts and principles that have been known to us through the Bridgetown initiative, capital adequacy framework or the global financial pact. If possible, the G20 should drive this."

Shruti Sharma, Senior Policy Advisor, International Institute for Sustainable Development said, "Back in 2009, the G20 committed to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies over the medium-term; yet in 2022, the bloc provided a record $1.4 trillion of public funds to support fossil fuels. In the run-up to this year's G20 there has been almost no meaningful discussion of public support to fossil fuels. We urge G20 leaders to set a clear timeline to end public support for fossil fuels."