What Scientists Say About Cyclone Biporjoy's Impact on Monsoon 2023

The 'Biporjoy' Cyclone is all set to hit the coastal line of the Arabian Sea this week. As the Cyclone is brawled to wreak havoc in the Western part of India, along with the entire nation, scientists have opinions to share. Let's look into the detailed perspective of Scientists on the emergence of the cyclone, 'Biporjoy'.

With cyclonic storm Biporjoy developing in the Arabian Sea, India will have to wait a little longer for the Southwest Monsoon 2023. The weather system is currently maintaining the strength of a powerful cyclone. Meteorologists believe that air conditions and cloud mass indicate that the system will retain the strength of a very severe cyclone until June 12.

What Scientists Say About Cyclone Biporjoy

The Meaning and Origin of 'Biporjoy':

'Biporjoy,' a Bangla name proposed by Bangladesh that means 'disaster,' is a befitting name for a cyclone that could become an Exceptionally Severe Cyclonic Storm later this week.

IMD on the Cyclone; 'Biporjoy':

According to India Meteorology Department (IMD), the weather phenomenon is predicted to be more intensified and may build up to a very severe cyclonic storm by June 9. The frequency, duration, and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea have increased considerably, according to the report, Changing status of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, by a Report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India. The intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea has also increased by about 20% (post-monsoon) to 40% (pre-monsoon). The number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea has increased by 52%, while the number of severe cyclones has increased by 150%.

Know What Scientists Have to Say on the Cyclone, 'Biporjoy':

According to environmental scientists, the weather conditions are favorable for the system to continue to flourish. With a long sea voyage ahead, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are extremely warm, infusing additional heat and moisture into the atmosphere. This would allow the system to maintain its strength for a longer period of time.

IIT Bombay Professor Dr. Raghu Murtugudde Says:

"The oceans have become warmer already on account of climate change. In fact, a recent study shows that the Arabian Sea has warmed up by almost 1.2 degrees Celsius since March, thus conditions are very much favorable for the rapid intensification of the system so it has the potential to sustain the strength for a longer period," said Dr. Raghu Murtugudde, Professor, department of atmospheric and oceanic science, University of Maryland and IIT Bombay.

The Connection Between Cyclone Biporjoy and Monsoon 2023:

IMD anticipated the commencement of the Monsoon on June 4 with a +/- 4% error margin. After meeting the three meteorological requirements, the onset of the Monsoon over the Indian landmass of Kerala is declared. Rainfall should exceed 2.5 mm at 60% of the 14 stations in Kerala for two consecutive days. Second, in the provided area, the depth of westerly winds, as well as the value of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), which is the energy radiated by the Earth's surface, seas, and atmosphere into space, should be less than a particular value.

According to the IMD, weather conditions are gradually improving in preparation for the arrival of the Monsoon. All of the necessary characteristics are coming together. With cyclone Biparjoy building in the Arabian Sea, meteorologists have already issued a warning against a thundering onset over Kerala.

Given the location of the anticipated cyclonic storm, there is a chance that Monsoon will make landfall around 8-9 June, but it will be relatively weak. Clouds and rain are evident manifestations of the Monsoon's coming, which will be satisfied during the cyclone's strengthening process. As a result, the onset will be present but suppressed. It would, however, be damaging to the Monsoon's progress and the strengthening of the Monsoon stream.

Lead Author of the IPCC, Quote:

"An exceptionally warm Arabian Sea, a weak monsoon onset, and favorable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions in the Indian Ocean are favoring this cyclone. With this, it would not be the case of classic Monsoon onset, satisfying all the given criteria. We would have scattered rains along the West Coast strip but no inland penetration and widespread rains," said Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Lead IPCC Author.