What is Just Transition? Is India Prepared to save Livelihood, employment in the Eastern States?

India is one of the most powerful and emerging economies across the globe. India is the second largest Coal importer in the world. Through this, the power and capacity of India, especially in the Coal Sector can be understood. India's primary energy demand is fulfilled by the Coal sector. The Coal Sector of India contributes 45% of total energy demand in the country.

The population of India highly depends on the Coal reservoir in many different ways. India is heading towards the transition to net economies. To achieve the goal by 2070; the nation is focusing on 'coal phase down' approach as opposed to a 'coal phase out'. But, there is an alarming question that this step of India will lead to. The nullification of Coal industry in India by 2070 puts the question of Unemployment and other major options for energy production. Coal plays an inevitable role in the upliftment of the economy of India, presently.

With regard to environmental and/or climatic justice, a number of organizations have used the concept of a Just Transition in recent years. When it comes to reducing climate change, the IPCC defines fair transition as "a set of principles, processes, and practices that aim to ensure that no people, workers, places, sectors, countries, or regions are left behind in the transition from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy."

Geographic distribution raises important implications

A particularly relevant aspect of India's just transition is the geographic distribution of the energy transition. The states in India with high solar radiation, and thus significant solar power generation capacity, are in the west of the country, while the coal-rich states are predominantly in the center and east. This geographic distribution raises important implications for how local-, state-, and national-level agencies need to manage the energy transition and its impacts on particular groups and regions.

The Indian national government has set ambitious renewable energy goals that include the development of 175 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy by 2022. However, such a transition away from coal and towards renewable energy will heavily impact its coal sector which currently provides 45 percent of India's total primary energy demand.

India set the target for achieving net zero by 2070, at COP26 in 2021; with a focus on a 'coal phase down' approach as opposed to a 'coal phase out'.

During COP27, held in November 2022, India released a national report focused on the country's long-term low-emission development strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The key emphasis was on transitioning from fossil fuels in a just, smooth, sustainable, and all-inclusive manner.

The country also updated its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2022, which it aims to achieve by 2030 to reflect a "coal phase down" approach. Through its NDCs, India has committed to meeting 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources and to reducing the emission intensity of its GDP by 45%, from the 2005 level.

How it is going to impact employment and livelihood

India's pronouncements at COP27 and in the revised NDCs highlight the country's commitment towards transitioning from fossil fuels like coal, in a just manner. Along with its commitment to global normative frameworks, India has brought various domestic policy measures that align with the goal of phasing coal down, key among these are as follows:

The draft National Electricity Plan for 2022-27, through which the Government expects domestic coal requirement to touch 1018.2 MT by 2031-32.

According to the Plan, the Government intends to retire coal-based capacity totalling 4,629 MW between 2022 and 2027. The Plan also indicated retiring old and inefficient power plant units that cannot undergo renovation and modernization, to reduce carbon emissions.

Due to this exercise, around 30 million of people will get affected. The impact will not be abrupt, but a multi-decadal. The people may lose their jobs due to the shutting down the power plants and coal mines. For the people living in states like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha nd West Bengal there could be a matter of survival.

An environment organization and EY have released a report, "Livelihood opportunities for a Just Transition in Jharkhand" talking about the impacts on these states, especially Jharkhand, which is the most prominent coal-wearing state. Climate Trends and EY did a survey on 6000 people employed directly or indirectly in the coal mines in Jharkhand.

What Experts says on the Transition

While releasing the report in Kolkata, experts from IIMs, IITs, and various government organizations express their concern for the livelihood of the people.

Prof. Runa Sarkar, from the Indian Institute of Management, Kolkata said that the cost of transition is much bigger than what we expect. It is not just a matter of the livelihood of the people, but a matter of the identity of the people working in coal mines for generations.

Kunal Singh, Lead, of Research & Data Analytics, Policy Development Advisory Group said that there will always be uncertainty on the timeline of the transition. It is not a one or two-year task, it's a multidecadal task. He gave an example of Germany which took 60 years to move from fossil fuel to green energy.

Aarti Khosla, Director, of Climate Trends gave her opinion on the transition and said that the government has to take several measures while moving to zero-emission energy. The major problem is the dependency of the state's economy on fossil fuels. Government should take some learnings from the city like Giridih where the coal mine was shut in 2020 and after that how the city is coping.

Recommendations of the Study

• Government should make the 'Guidelines for Preparation of Final Mine Closure Plan' to include suggestive plans to accommodate workers affected by mine closure through steps such as providing temporary income support, providing training to displaced workers, and connecting workers to potential employers.
• The state should provide an alternate livelihood plan for the workers.
• The state should do a skill set mapping for the workers and provide training to them so that they could find better opportunities ahead.
• Investment in sunrise sectors should be identified by the state governments.
• There is a need of Quantifying the level of investment needed for energy transition and identifying the sources of funding for the same.
• Private and public banks may look at further aligning their portfolio to address climate change, including energy transition to encourage the private sector and corporations to invest in related projects.